FR-AM-0003Fragmenting
Cuprate Superconductivity — Mechanism Identification
The mechanism responsible for high-temperature superconductivity in cuprate materials has been identified.
FR-AM-0002Fragmenting
Anomalous Excess Heat — Electrochemical Cells Beyond Conventional Chemistry
Electrochemical cells can produce anomalous excess heat that is not fully explained by conventional chemical processes.
FR-AM-0001Collapsed
Cold Fusion — Room-Temperature Nuclear Fusion in Electrochemical Cells
Electrochemical cells can produce nuclear fusion reactions at or near room temperature.
FR-AI-0009Escalating
World Models — Physical Prediction and Transfer
AI systems can learn predictive representations of the physical world that support reliable action when the objects, environment, task, or embodiment differ materially from those encountered during training.
FR-AI-0001Escalating
LLM Multi-Step Reasoning — Generalisation Beyond Training
Large language models can perform multi-step reasoning that generalises beyond memorised training examples.
FR-AI-0002Escalating
LLM Knowledge-Work Utility — Economically Valuable Task Performance
Large language models can perform economically valuable knowledge-work tasks with limited human supervision.
FR-AI-0003Fragmenting
RLHF Preference Generalisation — Behaviour Beyond Training Distribution
Reinforcement learning from human feedback produces AI systems whose behaviour continues to reflect human preferences when deployed beyond the conditions represented in training.
FR-AI-0004Fragmenting
Scaling Laws — Emergent Performance on Unseen Tasks
Scaling language model training increases performance on previously unseen tasks without task-specific optimisation.
FR-AI-0005Fragmenting
AGI Through Scaling — LLM Architecture as the Path to General Intelligence
Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved through scaling current large-language-model architectures.
FR-AI-0006Fragmenting
Scaling Mechanism Coherence — Continuity Across Model Sizes
Capabilities that emerge through scaling language models are explained by the same underlying mechanism across model sizes.
FR-AI-0008Fragmenting
AI Medical Imaging Diagnosis — Specialist-Level Accuracy on Defined Tasks
AI-assisted medical diagnosis achieves specialist-level accuracy on defined imaging tasks.
FR-AM-0004Escalating
Commercial Fusion Power — Net Electricity at Grid Scale
A commercially viable fusion power plant can generate net electricity at grid scale.
FR-AM-0005Collapsed
Room-Temperature Superconductivity — Reproducibility Under Laboratory Conditions
A room-temperature superconductor can be produced under reproducible laboratory conditions.
FR-AM-0006Escalating
Solid-State Batteries — Commercial Viability for Electric Vehicles
Solid-state batteries can achieve commercially viable energy density, safety, and cycle life for electric vehicles.
FR-BT-0001Escalating
Senolytic Therapies — Meaningful Human Healthspan Extension
Senolytic therapies can meaningfully extend healthy human lifespan.
FR-BT-0002Escalating
Epigenetic Reprogramming — Biological Age Reversal Without Identity Loss
Epigenetic reprogramming can reverse biological age in living organisms without loss of cellular identity.
FR-BT-0003Fragmenting
Biological Age Biomarker Panels — Predictive Validity for Age-Related Decline
A blood-based biomarker panel can reliably predict biological age-related decline before clinical symptoms appear.
FR-BT-0004Fragmenting
Liquid Biopsy — Early Cancer Detection Before Conventional Diagnosis
A blood-based liquid biopsy can reliably detect cancer before conventional clinical diagnosis.
FR-QE-0002Fragmenting
D-Wave Quantum Annealing — Practical Computational Advantage
Quantum annealing systems have demonstrated practical computational advantage over classical methods on commercially or scientifically relevant optimisation tasks.
FR-QE-0003Escalating
Fault-Tolerant Logical Qubits — Error Rate Scaling with Code Distance
Fault-tolerant logical qubits can be demonstrated with logical error rates that improve as error-correcting code distance increases.
FR-QE-0005Escalating
Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computing — RSA Factorisation
A quantum computer can factor commercially relevant RSA cryptographic keys faster than any classical computer.
FR-QE-0006Escalating
Fault-Tolerant Quantum Utility — Practically Useful Algorithms Beyond Classical Simulation
A fault-tolerant quantum computer can execute a practically useful quantum algorithm beyond classical simulation.
FR-QE-0007Fragmenting
Practical Quantum Advantage — Performance Beyond Classical Computation on Relevant Problems
A quantum computer has achieved quantum advantage on a practically relevant problem.
FR-QE-0008Resolving
Quantum Error Correction Scaling — Logical Rate Suppression Under Physical Overhead
Quantum error correction can reduce logical error rates faster than physical error rates increase with system scale.
FR-AI-0007Fragmenting
Autonomous AI Scientific Discovery — Novel, Correct, Independent
AI systems can autonomously conduct scientific research that produces novel, correct discoveries.
FR-QE-0004Resolving
Below-Threshold Quantum Error Correction — Scalable Architecture
Quantum error correction can reduce logical error rates below physical error rates in a scalable architecture.
FR-AM-0007Escalating
Pressure-Quenched Superconductivity — Retention of High-Pressure States at Ambient Pressure
Pressure-quench protocols can stabilise pressure-induced or pressure-enhanced superconducting states at ambient pressure.
FR-BT-0005Escalating
Gene-Edited Porcine Kidneys — Durable Human Renal Replacement
Gene-edited porcine kidneys can provide sustained, life-supporting renal replacement in living human recipients with a clinically acceptable burden of rejection, infection and immunosuppression.
FR-QE-0001Stabilising
Google Quantum Advantage (Sycamore) — Computational Supremacy via Random Circuit Sampling
A programmable quantum processor has demonstrated computational supremacy — performing a well-defined sampling task beyond the practical reach of any classical computer.