Faultline Observatory

Records Directory

A permanent public ledger of frontier claims and the evidence that has tested them.

32Records
4Programmes
100Assessments
Evidence Trajectories

Read the record over time

The Record shows what the Observatory holds. Evidence Trajectories shows how its judgement got there.

Open Evidence Trajectories
Showing 32 records
FR-QE-0001Stabilising
Google Quantum Advantage (Sycamore) — Computational Supremacy via Random Circuit Sampling
A programmable quantum processor has demonstrated computational supremacy — performing a well-defined sampling task beyond the practical reach of any classical computer.
Assessment history2 assessmentsFragmentingStabilisinglast assessed 2026-07-22
PROG-QE2 assessments
FR-AI-0003Fragmenting
RLHF Preference Generalisation — Behaviour Beyond Training Distribution
Reinforcement learning from human feedback produces AI systems whose behaviour continues to reflect human preferences when deployed beyond the conditions represented in training.
Assessment history4 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-29
PROG-AI4 assessments
FR-AI-0001Escalating
LLM Multi-Step Reasoning — Generalisation Beyond Training
Large language models can perform multi-step reasoning that generalises beyond memorised training examples.
Assessment history3 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-12
PROG-AI3 assessments
FR-AI-0002Escalating
LLM Knowledge-Work Utility — Economically Valuable Task Performance
Large language models can perform economically valuable knowledge-work tasks with limited human supervision.
Assessment history3 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-12
PROG-AI3 assessments
FR-AI-0007Fragmenting
Autonomous AI Scientific Discovery — Novel, Correct, Independent
AI systems can autonomously conduct scientific research that produces novel, correct discoveries.
Assessment history4 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-03
PROG-AI4 assessments
FR-AM-0004Escalating
Commercial Fusion Power — Net Electricity at Grid Scale
A commercially viable fusion power plant can generate net electricity at grid scale.
Assessment history4 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-19
PROG-AM4 assessments
FR-AM-0005Collapsed
Room-Temperature Superconductivity — Reproducibility Under Laboratory Conditions
A room-temperature superconductor can be produced under reproducible laboratory conditions.
Assessment history3 assessments · Collapsed reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-20
PROG-AM3 assessments
FR-AM-0006Escalating
Solid-State Batteries — Commercial Viability for Electric Vehicles
Solid-state batteries can achieve commercially viable energy density, safety, and cycle life for electric vehicles.
Assessment history5 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-21
PROG-AM5 assessments
FR-BT-0001Escalating
Senolytic Therapies — Meaningful Human Healthspan Extension
Senolytic therapies can meaningfully extend healthy human lifespan.
Assessment history3 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-23
PROG-BT3 assessments
FR-BT-0006Emerging
Bottom-Up Synthetic Cells — Autonomous Cellular Reproduction
A cell assembled bottom-up from non-living molecular components can autonomously sustain repeated cycles of genome replication, growth and division while preserving functional biological information across generations.
Assessment history1 assessment · since 2026-09-12
PROG-BT1 assessment
FR-QE-0003Escalating
Fault-Tolerant Logical Qubits — Error Rate Scaling with Code Distance
Fault-tolerant logical qubits can be demonstrated with logical error rates that improve as error-correcting code distance increases.
Assessment history2 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-06-28
PROG-QE2 assessments
FR-QE-0004Resolving
Below-Threshold Quantum Error Correction — Scalable Architecture
Quantum error correction can reduce logical error rates below physical error rates in a scalable architecture.
Assessment history4 assessments · Resolving reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-14
PROG-QE4 assessments
FR-QE-0008Resolving
Quantum Error Correction Scaling — Logical Rate Suppression Under Physical Overhead
Quantum error correction can reduce logical error rates faster than physical error rates increase with system scale.
Assessment history5 assessments · Resolving reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-20
PROG-QE5 assessments
FR-BT-0007Emerging
Implantable Brain–Computer Interfaces — Sustained Communication in Paralysis
Chronically implanted brain–computer interfaces can provide people with severe paralysis with reliable, independently usable communication over sustained everyday use.
Assessment history1 assessment · since 2026-09-15
PROG-BT1 assessment
FR-BT-0005Escalating
Gene-Edited Porcine Kidneys — Durable Human Renal Replacement
Gene-edited porcine kidneys can provide sustained, life-supporting renal replacement in living human recipients with a clinically acceptable burden of rejection, infection and immunosuppression.
Assessment history2 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-26
PROG-BT2 assessments
FR-AI-0005Fragmenting
AGI Through Scaling — LLM Architecture as the Path to General Intelligence
Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved through scaling current large-language-model architectures.
Assessment history3 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-03
PROG-AI3 assessments
FR-AI-0006Fragmenting
Scaling Mechanism Coherence — Continuity Across Model Sizes
Capabilities that emerge through scaling language models are explained by the same underlying mechanism across model sizes.
Assessment history5 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-01
PROG-AI5 assessments
FR-AI-0008Fragmenting
AI Medical Imaging Diagnosis — Specialist-Level Accuracy on Defined Tasks
AI-assisted medical diagnosis achieves specialist-level accuracy on defined imaging tasks.
Assessment history4 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-18
PROG-AI4 assessments
FR-AM-0001Collapsed
Cold Fusion — Room-Temperature Nuclear Fusion in Electrochemical Cells
Electrochemical cells can produce nuclear fusion reactions at or near room temperature.
Assessment history5 assessmentsEmergingFragmentingCollapsedlast assessed 2026-09-08
PROG-AM5 assessments
FR-AM-0007Escalating
Pressure-Quenched Superconductivity — Retention of High-Pressure States at Ambient Pressure
Pressure-quench protocols can stabilise pressure-induced or pressure-enhanced superconducting states at ambient pressure.
Assessment history1 assessment · since 2026-08-25
PROG-AM1 assessment
FR-BT-0002Escalating
Epigenetic Reprogramming — Biological Age Reversal Without Identity Loss
Epigenetic reprogramming can reverse biological age in living organisms without loss of cellular identity.
Assessment history4 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-24
PROG-BT4 assessments
FR-BT-0003Fragmenting
Biological Age Biomarker Panels — Predictive Validity for Age-Related Decline
A blood-based biomarker panel can reliably predict biological age-related decline before clinical symptoms appear.
Assessment history4 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-10-19
PROG-BT4 assessments
FR-BT-0004Fragmenting
Liquid Biopsy — Early Cancer Detection Before Conventional Diagnosis
A blood-based liquid biopsy can reliably detect cancer before conventional clinical diagnosis.
Assessment history3 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-26
PROG-BT3 assessments
FR-QE-0006Escalating
Fault-Tolerant Quantum Utility — Practically Useful Algorithms Beyond Classical Simulation
A fault-tolerant quantum computer can execute a practically useful quantum algorithm beyond classical simulation.
Assessment history4 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-16
PROG-QE4 assessments
FR-QE-0007Fragmenting
Practical Quantum Advantage — Performance Beyond Classical Computation on Relevant Problems
A quantum computer has achieved quantum advantage on a practically relevant problem.
Assessment history3 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-17
PROG-QE3 assessments
FR-QE-0005Escalating
Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computing — RSA Factorisation
A quantum computer can factor commercially relevant RSA cryptographic keys faster than any classical computer.
Assessment history4 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-15
PROG-QE4 assessments
FR-AM-0003Fragmenting
Cuprate Superconductivity — Mechanism Identification
The mechanism responsible for high-temperature superconductivity in cuprate materials has been identified.
Assessment history3 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-10
PROG-AM3 assessments
FR-AI-0004Fragmenting
Scaling Laws — Emergent Performance on Unseen Tasks
Scaling language model training increases performance on previously unseen tasks without task-specific optimisation.
Assessment history3 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-02
PROG-AI3 assessments
FR-AI-0009Escalating
World Models — Physical Prediction and Transfer
AI systems can learn predictive representations of the physical world that support reliable action when the objects, environment, task, or embodiment differ materially from those encountered during training.
Assessment history2 assessments · Escalating reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-28
PROG-AI2 assessments
FR-AM-0002Fragmenting
Anomalous Excess Heat — Electrochemical Cells Beyond Conventional Chemistry
Electrochemical cells can produce anomalous excess heat that is not fully explained by conventional chemical processes.
Assessment history2 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-09
PROG-AM2 assessments
FR-QE-0002Fragmenting
D-Wave Quantum Annealing — Practical Computational Advantage
Quantum annealing systems have demonstrated practical computational advantage over classical methods on commercially or scientifically relevant optimisation tasks.
Assessment history3 assessments · Fragmenting reaffirmed · last assessed 2026-09-12
PROG-QE3 assessments
FR-AM-0008Emerging
Type-I Superconductivity — Intrinsic Time-Reversal Symmetry Breaking in YbSb₂
The bulk type-I superconducting state of YbSb₂ intrinsically breaks time-reversal symmetry.
Assessment history1 assessment · since 2026-10-04
PROG-AM1 assessment